Colts' snaps grade them far below what the market thought through nine games

The most surprising number in the Colts' Lab file is the gap between what the market expected and what the snaps say. Through nine games the betting market projected Indianapolis at minus-2.6 points per game. The snaps put the team at minus-8.2. The real margin is minus-7.2.

5.6 points: the market never priced in this team

That 5.6-point gap between the snap-based margin and the market margin ranks 30th of 32 on our most-underrated-by-the-market list, with first meaning most underrated. Only two teams sit lower. The actual results land much closer to the snaps than to the market.

The Colts are 5-4-0 against the closing spread, so the number was beaten more often than not even as the team lost. For Week 10, the line is Indianapolis minus-3.5 with a total of 38.5. Those figures are context, and the nine games already played say the line has been generous to this team.

Market vs Snaps

2.8 wins: the 2-7 record is close to deserved

Our Deserved Standings give Indianapolis 2.8 wins and 6.2 losses, against a real 2-7. Luck accounts for 0.8 wins. The Colts rank 13th in the conference on the real table and 13th on the deserved table, and they sit outside the playoff field on both.

So the record is not a mirage. The team is bad by the numbers, and a different bounce or two would not have changed the picture much.

Deserved Standings

78%: the pass rate depends on where the quarterback lines up

The Colts have the most play action and the highest pass rate over expected in the league. Out of shotgun they throw on 78 percent of snaps. With the quarterback under center, they throw on 34 percent, a gap of 44 points.

That split is the formation tell. Indianapolis ranks 12th of 32 in predictability by formation, so it is a lean tendency and not an open book. The line can still read it. When the offense goes under center, the defensive front can expect the run more often than not, and the Dolphins will have film of it.

Scheme DNA

71%: the cap on the field ranks 26th of 32

Paid vs Played puts 71 percent of the Colts' cap spend on the field, which ranks 26th of 32 in value. Cap on injured reserve is $17.4 million, and cap on players who are not playing totals $36 million.

Jonathan Taylor shows the mismatch most plainly. His $16.19 million cap hit sits at the 100th percentile for pay, and his playing time sits at the 30th percentile. DJ Giddens runs the other way. His $1.11 million hit is at the 35th percentile, with a played percentile of 81, though he has taken 1 percent of snaps.

Paid vs Played

23: Shane Steichen's clock score ranks 30th of 32

Clock IQ scores Steichen at 23 out of 99, 30th in the league. In the two-minute drill the Colts have run 10 drives for 6 points against an expected 7.7. They burn 0.67 timeouts per game, a little better than the league figure of 0.75, so the problem is the drives and not the timeouts.

Clock IQ

The Dolphins visit Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday, Nov. 15, at 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS. Indianapolis is home in Week 10 for a game with a 38.5 total, and the first thing to track is how often the Colts stay in shotgun against a defense that has the formation split on film.