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Chiefs DeskThe Verdict

Chiefs beat the Jets 35-12 and the snaps say the margin was no accident

The Chiefs played like a team that wins more than 99% of the time, and the one fourth-down punt worth second-guessing cost them 0.8 expected points.

The VerdictEarnedDeserved >99% · Week 9
By Chiefs Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 10, 10:10 AM ET3 min read

The verdict

The snaps gave the Chiefs a deserved win probability of more than 99%. Played like that, they win that game essentially every time. The 35-12 final was earned.

The scoreboard margin was 23 points. The snaps said Chiefs by 22.4, a gap of 0.6. Nothing here needed a favor from the bounce of the ball.

What the score hid

Kansas City averaged 0.18 EPA per snap. EPA, or expected points added, measures how much each play moves the scoring outlook of a drive. The Jets averaged minus 0.27, a difference of 0.45 on every snap.

The success rate told the same story: 56% for the Chiefs, 39% for New York.

Luck points were close to a wash. The Chiefs picked up 1.5 and the Jets 0.3, a difference of 1.2, which does not explain a 23-point game.

The swing play came in the second quarter with 6:29 on the clock. B.Allen ran up the middle for 5 yards and fumbled when N.Bolton hit him. A.Gilman recovered at the New York 26 and returned it to the 24. That play was worth 22 percentage points of win probability, the biggest of the afternoon, and it went to the Chiefs.

The calls

Andy Reid made one fourth-down call the model disliked. With 6:42 left in the second quarter, the Chiefs faced fourth-and-2 from 61 yards out, with a 52% win probability. They punted. The model said go, graded the call clear, and put the cost at 0.8 expected points.

The other two were right. In the third quarter, at 10:27, Reid went for it on fourth-and-1 from the 1-yard line with a 75% win probability, and the Chiefs scored a touchdown. At 6:43 he punted on fourth-and-11 from 68 yards out, which the model also wanted.

Two of three matched the model, and the miss came while the game was still within reach. It did not matter in the end.

The flags all ran Kansas City's way. The Jets were called for illegal contact (5 yards, 5 points of win probability), a face mask (15 yards, 4), a false start (5 yards, 2) and a kickoff out of bounds to open the third quarter (2). None came late, and the Chiefs did not need any of them.

The trend

Kansas City is 6-2 with 6.1 deserved wins. That puts luck at minus 0.1 wins, 18th among the 32 teams ranked luckiest first. The record is honest. The Chiefs are 2-1 in one-score games, have been robbed once and have not won a single game while lucky.

The luck sheet is lopsided in its parts. Fumble recoveries have given them 4.4 luck points, while opposing kickers have taken away 4.7. The season total is 12.1.

The flag count is heavy but has not hurt them: 55 penalties for 484 yards, a net swing of 1 percentage point of win probability. Their net EPA per snap is 0.163, fourth in the league.

On fourth down, the Chicken Index sits at 33%, 23rd among the 32 teams ranked most timid first. Reid has gone on 8 of the 12 snaps where the model recommended going, across 32 graded fourth downs. The timid calls have cost 4.4 expected points, with two clear misses, and Sunday's punt was one of them.

Next up is the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, Nov. 15, at 1:00 PM ET on CBS. It is the Chiefs' first road game in this stretch, and the next fourth-and-short will show whether the Chicken Index moves.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.