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Chiefs DeskThe TapeGame center →

Chiefs lose 28-24 in Denver after being outscored 15-0 in the fourth quarter

Kansas City led 24-13 through three quarters, then a 51-yard completion and a false start at the Denver 1 decided Week 8.

2428The TapeL 24–28atBRONCOS
By Chiefs Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 7, 1:25 PM ET3 min read

The deciding stretch

The Chiefs' final offensive snap sequence at Empower Field at Mile High cost them 40 percentage points of win probability, the largest swing of the game. With four seconds left, a false start on J.Moore was enforced at the Denver 1 and wiped out the play. That penalty alone moved win probability by 29 points against Kansas City. On the next snap, Patrick Mahomes was sacked at the Denver 12 for a loss of six yards by M.Roach.

The Chiefs had been in control for three quarters. They led 24-13 after the third, having scored 7, 10 and 7 in the first three periods. They scored nothing in the fourth. Denver scored 15 and won 28-24.

The swing

The other major swing came at 2:31 of the fourth quarter. B.Nix threw short right to J.Coleman, who carried the ball 51 yards to the Kansas City 5. The play cost the Chiefs 32 points of win probability, and it came against a defense that had held Denver to 2-for-11 on third down all day.

Kansas City answered at 1:32. Mahomes hit Travis Kelce short right for 32 yards to the Denver 18, a play worth 19 points of win probability in the Chiefs' favor. It was the one big gain in the closing minutes that went their way, and it did not become a score before the false start and the sack ended the game.

The red zone told the same story in miniature. The Chiefs finished 2-for-3 inside the 20, and Denver went 3-for-3. Denver was also 2-for-2 on fourth down, while the Chiefs went 0-for-1.

Who moved the needle

The Chiefs outgained Denver 399 yards to 294 and averaged 0.163 EPA per play to the Broncos' 0.112. EPA, or expected points added, measures how much each play changes the offense's expected scoring on the drive. Kansas City's success rate was 49 percent against 43 percent for Denver.

Mahomes finished 30 of 41 for 321 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions, a 120.1 passer rating. His 44 plays added 10.9 points of EPA, the best total on the team. He was sacked twice for 12 yards.

Emmett Johnson was the most efficient piece. He caught five passes for 128 yards and a touchdown, including a 73-yarder, and those five plays added 9.5 points of EPA. Rashee Rice led the team with eight targets and caught seven for 53 yards and a touchdown. Kelce caught five for 67 yards on seven targets. Noah Gray added 2.9 EPA on two plays.

The run game did not carry its weight. Kenneth Walker III had 21 carries for 69 yards, 3.3 yards per carry, and his plays totaled minus 0.9 EPA. The Chiefs ran for 90 yards as a team at 3.8 per attempt. Xavier Worthy was the other negative, at minus 1.6 EPA on six plays.

On defense, Nick Bolton led with nine tackles. George Karlaftis had a sack, a tackle for loss and three passes defended.

The Chiefs also lost the penalty count. They were flagged 11 times for 105 yards, while Denver had six for 45. Three of Kansas City's 22 first downs came from Denver penalties on the other side of that ledger, and Denver took five of its own 21 that way.

Where it leaves them

Kansas City is 5-2 with a streak of two straight losses. They hold the fifth seed in the conference and second place in the division. Denver is 6-2 and leads the group, with the Raiders at 4-4 and the Chargers at 0-7.

The Chiefs' point differential is still plus 36, with 167 points for and 131 against. They are 3-0 at home and 2-2 on the road.

The next game is Week 9 against the New York Jets at Arrowhead on Sunday, Nov. 8, at 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.