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Chiefs DeskScouting ReportGame center →

Chiefs need a clean fourth quarter against a Jets team missing Garrett Wilson

Kansas City has lost two straight, 3-20 at Seattle and 24-28 at Denver, and hosts a Jets team that has dropped three in a row.

Crunch timeScouting ReportvsLine KC -9.5
By Chiefs Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 7, 4:50 PM ET3 min read

The matchup in numbers

The Chiefs lost 24-28 at Denver last week, a four-point result that left them 5-2 and second in the division behind the 6-2 Broncos. Before that came a 3-20 loss at Seattle. Kansas City holds the fifth seed and is 3-0 at home.

The efficiency gap favors the Chiefs. Their offense averages 0.126 EPA per play, fourth in the league. EPA, or expected points added, measures how much each snap changes a team's expected scoring. The Chiefs' success rate is 48 percent, and their rushing offense ranks second. The Jets' offense averages 0.044 EPA per play, 11th, with a 46 percent success rate.

On defense, Kansas City allows minus-0.034 EPA per play, 11th, and holds opponents to a 40 percent success rate. New York allows 0.023 per play, 19th, and a 45 percent success rate. The Jets are 2-6 with a point differential of minus-18. The Chiefs are at plus-36.

Where they can win it

The Jets' pass defense ranks 26th, and Patrick Mahomes is the quarterback who can use that. He has 1,743 yards, 0.15 EPA per play and a 49 percent success rate, with a completion rate 1.6 points above expectation. Travis Kelce is the most efficient target on the roster at 0.52 EPA per target and a 60 percent success rate, on 410 yards and a 19 percent target share. Rashee Rice adds 0.26 EPA per target on 243 yards.

The ground game meets more resistance. New York's rushing defense ranks sixth, and Kansas City's rushing offense ranks second. Kenneth Walker III has 770 yards at 0.07 EPA per play and a 45 percent success rate, so his carries move the chains without producing big plays. Xavier Worthy has 230 yards and minus-0.06 EPA per target.

The worry

The late-game question starts with how the Jets score. In losses they put up 33 points against the Raiders and 25 against the Dolphins, so this offense keeps games alive. Geno Smith has 1,723 yards, 0.13 EPA per play and a completion rate 6 points above expectation.

The Chiefs' pass defense ranks 14th, and its starting corner is not available (see below). Adonai Mitchell has been the Jets' most efficient receiver at 0.71 EPA per target on 27 targets and 265 yards. Mason Taylor is at 0.21 EPA per target on 136 yards.

Kansas City has now lost two straight, and the Denver game was decided by four points. A team that wins by margin early still has to close the fourth quarter, and the Chiefs have not done that in either of their last two games.

Availability

Cornerback Mansoor Delane (shoulder) is out for Kansas City, and he is a listed starter. Wide receiver Nikko Remigio (hip) is questionable and also a starter. Peter Woods (neck) and Omarr Norman-Lott (knee, ACL) are both out. Neither is a listed starter. Cornerback L'Jarius Sneed is on injured reserve with a knee injury.

The Jets lose their top target. Garrett Wilson is out with a concussion after taking a 28 percent target share, 527 yards and 0.39 EPA per target. Linebacker Trevin Wallace, cornerback Nahshon Wright and defensive end Joseph Ossai are also out, and Harrison Phillips is questionable with an ankle injury.

Kickoff is Sunday, Nov 8 at 1:00 PM ET at Arrowhead Stadium, on CBS. The matchup to watch is the Chiefs' second-ranked rushing offense against the Jets' sixth-ranked rushing defense once the game tightens late.

Kansas City is a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 48.5, which is context for the matchup and not a pick.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.