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Giants DeskScouting ReportGame center →

Giants' Winston-led offense meets Eagles' league-worst run defense

New York ranks 15th in offensive EPA per play, and Philadelphia's rush defense ranks 32nd, with Cam Skattebo listed as doubtful.

Jameis WinstonScouting ReportatLine NYG -3QBJameis Winston
By Giants Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 7, 5:00 PM ET2 min read

The matchup in numbers

Jameis Winston has been worth minus-0.08 EPA per play across 179 passing plays. EPA, expected points added, measures how many points a play adds or costs compared with what that down and distance usually produces. His completion rate sits 7.5 points below expectation, and he has 889 yards.

Jalen Hurts, the Eagles quarterback, has the same 179 plays and a nearly identical profile: minus-0.05 EPA per play, 853 yards and a completion rate 2.2 points below expectation. Neither passer is moving his offense.

The team numbers separate the sides. The Giants rank 15th in offensive EPA per play at 0.013, with a 42 percent success rate. The Eagles rank 31st at minus-0.127 and 37 percent. On defense, New York allows 0.011 per play (17th) and Philadelphia allows 0.102 (29th).

Where they can win it

The Eagles rank 32nd against the run, which would normally point to the ground game. The Giants' own backs have not been efficient. Cam Skattebo has 418 yards on 98 plays at minus-0.11 EPA and a 37 percent success rate. N.Harris has 101 yards on 32 plays at minus-0.35 and 25 percent.

The better route runs through the receivers. Malik Nabers has a 30 percent target share, 605 yards and 0.23 EPA per play, with a 52 percent success rate. Isaiah Likely follows at 27 percent, 395 yards and 0.22.

Malachi Fields adds 248 yards at 0.16 per play, and Darnell Mooney sits at minus-0.03 on 22 plays. Philadelphia's pass defense ranks 25th, so the targets that already produce are the ones to feed.

The worry

The Giants lead the division at 4-2-1, but the margin is thin: 163 points scored, 161 allowed, a difference of 2. The Eagles are 2-6 and have lost six in a row, yet this is a New York team that tied Washington 27-27 in Week 5 and lost 27-34 to the Saints in Week 6.

The quarterback and the line have to work as one unit here, and the passing numbers show how little room there is. At minus-0.08 per play, Winston has not generated enough on his own to cover for a stalled run game.

The defense has its own soft spot. New York ranks 22nd against the run, and Saquon Barkley has 274 yards on 56 carries at 0.02 EPA per play. Dallas Goedert has 0.26 EPA per play on 35 targets and a 51 percent success rate.

Availability

Skattebo is listed as doubtful with a hamstring injury, and he is a starter. Charlie Jones, a starting receiver, is questionable with a hand injury. Tyrone Tracy Jr. is on injured reserve with a hamstring injury.

Philadelphia is thinner. DeVonta Smith (hamstring), Britain Covey (knee) and Jihaad Campbell (hamstring) are all out and all start. Jonathan Jones, Michael Carter II and Dontayvion Wicks are also out. Wicks leads the Eagles in EPA per play at 0.5.

Tanner McKee, a quarterback, is questionable with a rib injury. Kickoff is Sunday at 1:00 PM ET on Fox at Lincoln Financial Field, and the Giants' final injury designations will settle the backfield.

The Giants are listed as 3-point favorites with a total of 38.5, which reflects how little either offense has produced.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.