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Cardinals DeskThe Lab Report

Cardinals two-minute offense scored 9 points on drives worth 3.1

Arizona's late-clock work is beating its projection while a shotgun-heavy, no-disguise offense hands the Rams a script in Week 10.

The Lab ReportCrunch time2.6Deserved wins · The Lab
By Cardinals Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 12, 4:00 PM ET2 min read

The most surprising number in the Cardinals' Lab file is on the clock, not the scoreboard. In eight two-minute drives, Arizona has scored 9 points. The expected total for those drives is 3.1. That is the best part of a 3-6 team.

9 points: the two-minute drill is outrunning its projection

Expected points is the average a team scores from the same field position and situation. Arizona has beaten it by 5.9 points over eight drives. Mike LaFleur's Clock IQ score is 62 out of 99, ninth among 32 teams.

The blemish is timeouts. The Cardinals burn 1 per game against a league rate of 0.75. Against the Rams, a margin that thin on the clock matters only if the game is close late.

The Clock IQ tool has the full breakdown: Clock IQ.

77%: the shotgun tells the defense what is coming

When Arizona lines up in shotgun, it passes 77% of the time. Under center, the pass rate is 29%. That split makes the Cardinals the fourth most predictable team in the league by formation.

The offense also has the lowest RPO rate and the lowest play-action rate in the league. Those are the tools that make a defense hesitate. Without them, a defensive coordinator can sit on the formation and rush the passer.

The Rams get to do that on Sunday. The Cardinals' first-down rhythm will depend on whether they break the pattern early. The Scheme DNA tool lays out the formation splits: Scheme DNA.

2.6 deserved wins: the 3-6 record is close to honest

The Deserved Standings table puts Arizona at 2.6 wins and 6.4 losses, against a real record of 3-6. The luck gap is 0.4 wins. By record the Cardinals sit 14th in the conference. By deserved record they sit 15th. Both tables leave them out of the playoff field.

There is no cushion in those numbers and no hidden surge to expect. The record reflects how the games have been played.

The full table is here: Deserved Standings.

79%: the payroll is mostly on the field, and it ranks 21st

Paid vs Played ranks Arizona 21st of 32 in value, with 79% of its cap spent on players who are playing. Another $24.5 million sits on injured reserve and $20.5 million is committed to players who are not playing.

The best bargain is cornerback Denzel Burke. His cap hit is $1.09 million, in the 30th percentile of pay. He has played 86% of the snaps, in the 84th percentile of playing time. The least value comes from running back Tyler Allgeier. His $4.35 million cap hit is in the 84th percentile of pay, and his playing time is in the 42nd.

Burke will be on the field against the Rams. Allgeier's workload is the number to track. The breakdown is at Paid vs Played.

The Cardinals host the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday, Nov. 15, at 4:05 PM ET on CBS. The Rams are 9.5-point favorites and the total is 39.5, both context rather than a pick. The things to watch are whether Arizona's formations change on first down and whether the late-clock work holds up.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.