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Cardinals DeskScouting ReportGame center →

Cardinals bring the 31st-ranked pass defense to Seattle

Arizona is 3-2 on the road, Seattle starter Sam Darnold is out, and the Cardinals offense sits 19th in EPA per play.

DefenseScouting ReportatLine SEA -8.5
By Cardinals Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 7, 2:00 PM ET3 min read

The matchup in numbers

Arizona's pass defense ranks 31st in the league, and it travels to a Seattle offense that ranks 17th through the air. The Cardinals are 3-5 and the Seahawks are 4-4, with both sitting in the bottom half of the NFC West behind the 49ers at 6-1.

The Cardinals offense is 19th in EPA per play at -0.022, with a 44 percent success rate. EPA is expected points added, a measure of how much each play moves the scoreboard compared with an average play from the same spot. Seattle's offense is 24th at -0.054 with a 41 percent success rate.

The defenses split the other way. Seattle's defense allows -0.087 EPA per play, fifth in the league, and holds opponents to a 39 percent success rate. Arizona's defense is 26th at 0.073 allowed, with opponents succeeding on 43 percent of plays.

Where they can win it

The Cardinals have one clear source of efficient offense. Trey McBride has 86 plays at 0.29 EPA per play and a 60 percent success rate, good for 544 yards and a 27 percent target share. Michael Wilson is next at 26 percent of targets, but his 81 plays have produced -0.01 EPA each.

Jacoby Brissett has 1,601 yards on 331 plays at -0.06 EPA per play and a 44 percent success rate. Seattle's pass defense ranks fourth, so the early downs matter. Staying ahead of the chains on first and second down is the way to avoid third-and-long against that unit.

On the other side of the ball, Arizona's rush defense ranks seventh and Seattle's rush offense ranks 30th. Emanuel Wilson leads the Seahawks with 403 yards on 111 plays, but he is at -0.15 EPA per play with a 36 percent success rate. If the Cardinals hold that group in check, Seattle's offense has to find another way to move.

Arizona beat the Cowboys 33-30 last week, and the Cardinals are 3-2 on the road against 0-3 at home.

The worry

The worry is Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He has 89 plays at 0.72 EPA per play with a 65 percent success rate, 985 yards and a 35 percent target share. No other Seattle pass catcher with at least 30 plays is above 0.27 EPA per play, which means the Seahawks offense runs through him.

That meets a Cardinals pass defense ranked 31st. Arizona has allowed 238 points through eight games, against 159 for Seattle, a gap that shows up in the point differentials of -63 and +26. The Cardinals lost 16-30 to the Broncos in Week 7 and 21-45 to the Lions in Week 5, and both games were at home.

Seattle is not arriving in form. The Seahawks lost 17-34 to the Bears last week after beating the Chiefs 20-3 the week before.

Availability

Seattle lists Sam Darnold (quadriceps) as out. Darnold has 1,369 yards on 237 plays at -0.03 EPA per play. Also out for the Seahawks are defensive tackle Leonard Williams (shoulder), wide receiver Rashid Shaheed (knee), linebacker Uchenna Nwosu (ankle), defensive tackle Brandon Pili (back), tackle Charles Cross (ankle) and guard Quenton Nelson (knee). Linebacker Connor O'Toole (foot) is questionable.

Arizona lists defensive tackle Walter Nolen III (ankle) and cornerback Max Melton (knee) as questionable. Running back Bam Knight (concussion), guard Jon Gaines II (ankle) and tackle Jayden Williams (knee) are out. Running back James Conner, guard Isaiah Adams, running back Jeremiyah Love and wide receiver Kendrick Bourne are on injured reserve. Love had 268 rushing yards and Bourne had 269 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, Nov 8, at 4:25 PM ET on Fox from Lumen Field. Watch the Cardinals' first-down results against Seattle's fourth-ranked pass defense.

Seattle is an 8.5-point favorite with a total of 39.5, numbers that frame the market's read on the game and are not a pick.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.