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Cardinals DeskThe Verdict

Cardinals lost at Seattle on the snaps as well as the scoreboard

Arizona took a 3-17 loss and the snaps backed it, with an offense that sat at minus 0.29 EPA per snap and a luck sheet that still leaned its way.

OffenseThe VerdictDeservedDeserved 0% · Week 9
By Cardinals Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 10, 10:10 AM ET2 min read

The verdict

The snaps gave Seattle better than a 99% chance. Played like that, the Cardinals win less than 1% of the time. The deserved margin was Seahawks by 15.7 points, and the final was 17-3. This was earned, with no luck involved.

In Seattle, Arizona posted a 41% success rate to the Seahawks' 43%. That gap looks small. The damage came in how far each team's good plays carried.

What the score hid

The Cardinals offense averaged minus 0.29 EPA per snap. EPA is expected points added: how many points each play moved the drive's value. Seattle averaged 0.08, so the gap was 0.37 points on every snap.

The luck sheet matters here. Arizona banked 3.2 luck points in the game and Seattle gave back 3.8. The Cardinals got the better of the bounces and still lost by 14.

The swing play came early. With 3:58 left in the first quarter, D.Lock threw short left to J.Price, who was pushed out of bounds at the Arizona 41 for 15 yards with B.Browning in on the tackle. Seattle gained 10 percentage points of win probability on that one throw.

The calls

The fourth-down work was mostly clean. On fourth-and-6 from the 10 in the first quarter, Arizona kicked the field goal, and the model called it a tossup. The punts on fourth-and-13, fourth-and-11 and fourth-and-8 matched the model.

The one miss came in the second quarter. On fourth-and-14 from the 43 with 5:36 left, the Cardinals punted when the model leaned toward a field goal. That cost 0.4 expected points, small by any measure.

Mike LaFleur's season tells the larger story. The model recommended going for it 14 times and Arizona went 6. The Chicken Index sits at 57%, 11th most timid of 32 teams, and 47 graded fourth downs have cost 7.9 expected points, with 3 clear misses. Sunday was not a Chicken Index game. It was an offense that rarely put LaFleur in range of a hard decision.

The flags hurt more. Defensive holding on Arizona in the first quarter at 8:04 moved win probability 7 points Seattle's way. Intentional grounding at 4:51 cost 10 yards and another 5 points. Defensive pass interference at 0:32 of the second quarter gave Seattle 29 yards and 5 more. Seattle's offensive holding at 11:52 of the second quarter handed back 7 points, so the flags were not one-sided, only mostly.

The trend

Arizona is 3-6 and the snaps say 2.6 deserved wins. That is 0.4 wins of luck, which ranks ninth luckiest among 32 teams. The 2-1 record in one-score games is part of that cushion, and no game this year has been a robbery.

Total luck stands at minus 3.4 points, driven by minus 4.8 from opponent kicking. Fumble recoveries added 0.2. The net flag effect over the year is minus 30 percentage points of win probability, on 68 penalties for 629 yards.

The underlying number is a net EPA of minus 0.127 per snap, 27th of 32. Teams at that level do not stay near .500 on luck, and the record is due to drift toward the 2.6.

The next test is the Los Angeles Rams at home on Sunday, Nov 15, at 4:05 PM ET on CBS. It is Arizona's first game since falling to minus 0.29 EPA per snap, and the Cardinals still have to show a success rate above 41%.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.