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Week 10
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InjuryRhamondre Stevenson: Doubtful → Questionable8 min agoInjuryTony Pollard: Active → Questionable8 min agoInjuryJared Goff: Questionable → Active8 min agoInjuryAlvin Kamara: Questionable → Active8 min agoInjuryDeShon Elliott: Questionable → Active24 min agoInjuryKevin Winston Jr.: Active → Questionable24 min agoCardinals DeskCardinals two-minute offense scored 9 points on drives worth 3.135 min agoDetroit LionsLions vs. Patriots practice report: Nov. 12InjuryKendal Daniels: Active → Questionable42 min agoInjuryA.J. Haulcy: Questionable → Out42 min agoIndianapolis ColtsPractice Notebook: S AJ Haulcy returns to practiceAtlanta FalconsFalcons injury report: Gervon Dexter Sr., James Pearce Jr. return to practice in limited capacityCarolina PanthersWeek 10 Thursday Injury Report: Only one player held out of practiceRavens DeskRavens two-minute offense has scored 9 points on drives worth 3.8 expected1 h agoMinnesota VikingsKirk Cousins Returns to No. 8 Vikings Jersey; Re-Sign Odell Beckham Jr. to Practice SquadESPNRhamondre Stevenson trying to play SundayESPNJonathan Taylor focused on being leader for Colts with trade deadline drama overESPNDeshaun Watson downplays facing Texans as Browns try to stay unbeaten at home, in playoff pictureNew York JetsAt 36, Jets QB Geno Smith Is Outperforming All ExpectationsPro Football RumorsChargers Turned Down Interest In Ladd McConkey, Khalil MackIndianapolis ColtsColts host military families for shoe-painting event with KicassoRams DeskRams are 5-4, but the snaps say they have played like a 6.6-win team2 h ago
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Ravens DeskThe Lab Report

Ravens two-minute offense has scored 9 points on drives worth 3.8 expected

Baltimore is 4-5, its snaps say 4.2 wins, and the scheme is built on outside runs and passes up the middle.

The Lab ReportCrunch time4.2Deserved wins · The Lab
By Ravens Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 12, 3:20 PM ET2 min read

The most surprising number in the Ravens file is on the Clock IQ page. In eight two-minute drives, Baltimore has scored 9 points against 3.8 expected for those drives. Expected points is the scoring a typical offense would get from the same field position and situation, so the Ravens are running well ahead of the model when the clock is short.

9 points on 3.8 expected: the two-minute drill is the outlier

Jesse Minter's clock management grades at 60 out of 99, 12th in the league. The two-minute return is the sharpest part of that score. Eight drives produced 9 points where the model projected 3.8, a gap that does not usually hold across a full season.

The timeout count is tidy as well. Baltimore burns 0.67 timeouts per game against a league average of 0.75, so the offense is not paying for its late-game work with wasted stoppages. Monday against the Chargers, watch whether the first drive after the two-minute warning in each half again gets more than the situation would normally give.

Clock IQ

69%: the shotgun tell is hard to read

The Scheme DNA page describes the Ravens offense as the league's most outside runs and most middle-of-the-field passing. The run game stretches the edge, and the passing game attacks the space that stretch opens.

The formation split is lopsided. Baltimore passes on 69% of shotgun snaps and on 33% of snaps under center. A defense might read that as a clean tell, but the formation tell ranks 27th of 32 with the most predictable offense first. Only a few teams are harder to guess from alignment. The Chargers have to defend the outside run and the middle pass without a formation to lean on.

Scheme DNA

4.2 deserved wins: the record is about right

Baltimore is 4-5. The Deserved Standings table gives the Ravens 4.2 wins and 4.8 losses, a luck figure of minus 0.2 wins, so the record has not been unfair in either direction. They rank 10th in the conference by real record and 9th by deserved record, and both tables leave them out of the playoff field.

That makes Week 10 a game about the margin, not a correction. There is no hidden surplus of wins to give back and no obvious pile of lost ones to collect.

Deserved Standings

Minus 5.2: the scoreboard is far below the snaps

The Market vs Snaps page puts three margins side by side over nine games. The market expected Baltimore to win by 1.2 points per game. The snaps say the Ravens deserved to lose by 0.8. The real margin is minus 5.2.

The snaps-minus-market difference is minus 2 points, which ranks the Ravens 26th of 32 on the list of teams the market underrates most. In other words, the market has not been selling Baltimore short. Against the closing spread the Ravens are 2-6-1.

For context only, Monday's line is BAL -4.5 with a total of 38.5, and kickoff is 8:15 PM ET on ESPN at M&T Bank Stadium. The gap between the deserved margin and the real margin is the number to track once the game starts.

Market vs Snaps

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.