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Chargers DeskScouting ReportGame center →

Chargers' offense ranks 32nd in EPA per play going into Houston game

Los Angeles is 0-7 and has scored 9 and 6 in its last two games, while Houston arrives 2-5 with a top-13 offense.

vsScouting ReportvsLine HOU -6
By Chargers Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 7, 5:01 PM ET3 min read

The matchup in numbers

The Chargers have lost seven straight, and the last two came by 15 points at the Rams (9-24) and 16 at the Chiefs (6-22). The earlier losses were closer: 17-23 against Denver in Week 5 and 23-30 at Seattle in Week 4, margins of 6 and 7.

Los Angeles ranks 32nd in offensive EPA per play at -0.256. EPA, expected points added, measures how much each snap moves a team's scoring expectation, so a negative number means the offense loses ground on the average play. The success rate is 35%. The Chargers rank 32nd in pass offense and 31st in rushing.

The defense is the steadier unit. It ranks 9th at -0.04 EPA allowed per play, with the pass defense 8th and the rush defense 23rd. The season point differential is -76 (99 for, 175 against).

Houston is 2-5 with a point differential of -5 (165 for, 170 against). The Texans' offense ranks 13th at 0.027 EPA per play with a 43% success rate. Their defense ranks 22nd at 0.031 allowed.

Where they can win it

The Chargers' pass defense ranks 8th, and the Texans run through C.J. Stroud. He has 267 plays, 0.14 EPA per play, a 48% success rate and 1,776 yards, with a completion rate 2.3 points above expectation. Forcing him off schedule is the clearest route to a low-scoring game.

On offense, the receivers are doing more than the passing game around them. Ladd McConkey carries 0.39 EPA per play and a 54% success rate on 24 plays, for 286 yards. Tre' Harris (0.30) and Quentin Johnston (0.24) are also positive. Houston's pass defense ranks 19th.

The Texans' rush offense ranks 25th. Woody Marks has 77 plays at -0.18 EPA and a 34% success rate for 271 yards.

The worry

Justin Herbert sits at -0.27 EPA per play with a 36% success rate on 255 plays. His completion rate is 4.2 points below expectation, and he has 1,240 yards. Oronde Gadsden, at -0.34 EPA on 26 plays, is the other half of that problem.

The ground game offers little relief. Omarion Hampton has 89 plays at -0.29 EPA and a 31% success rate for 309 yards. Keaton Mitchell has 39 plays at -0.19 for 145 yards. Houston's rush defense ranks 25th, so the matchup is softer than the numbers.

Houston has scored at least 21 in each of its last four games. The Chargers have not passed 9 points in their last two. Three of the Texans' last four games were decided by one score: L 21-27 against the Giants, W 34-31 at Jacksonville and L 30-34 against Dallas.

Availability

For the Chargers, S Kendall Williamson (calf) and CB Deane Leonard (concussion) are out. G Kayode Awosika (lower leg) and WR Brenen Thompson (quadriceps) are doubtful. LB Denzel Perryman, S Derwin James Jr. and TE David Njoku are on injured reserve. None of the seven is listed as a starter.

Houston is without S Reed Blankenship, a starter who is out with a concussion. RB David Montgomery is out with a groin injury. He has 52 plays at -0.35 EPA, so Marks should take more of the carries. WR Jaylin Noel is on injured reserve with a toe injury. He had 0.8 EPA per play and 331 yards on 23 plays.

Kickoff is Sunday at 4:05 PM ET at SoFi Stadium on CBS. The Chargers are 0-3 at home. The Texans are 0-4 at home and 2-1 on the road.

Houston is a 6-point favorite with the total at 40.5, a number that reflects how few points the Chargers have scored lately.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.