Bills are 7-1, but the Lab says 1.4 of those wins were luck

The Buffalo Bills own the best record in their conference at 7-1, and the Lab's deserved table has them fourth. The gap is 1.4 wins of luck. That is the most surprising number in this week's read, and it sits next to a team that still looks good everywhere else.

5.6: the wins the snaps say Buffalo earned

The Deserved Standings table builds a record from how each game was played, not how it ended. For Buffalo that is 5.6 deserved wins and 2.4 deserved losses, against a real 7-1. The real conference rank is first. The deserved rank is fourth.

Buffalo is in the playoff field on both tables, so the luck has not changed the picture yet. It has padded the cushion. Next up is the New York Jets, and the closing line there is BUF -8.5, which is context for how the market sees the gap, not a pick.

Deserved Standings

6.6: the margin per game the snaps support

Through eight games, Buffalo's real margin is 8.6 points per game. The margin its snaps deserve is 6.6. The market expected 3.6. The snaps number is 2.9 points a game above the market's, which ranks seventh of 32 among teams the market has underrated.

So the market was low, and the scoreboard overshot the snaps by two points a game. Buffalo is 6-2-0 against the closing spread, and both of those facts can be true. A team can be better than the line and still a little worse than its margin.

Market vs Snaps

84%: the cap that is actually on the field

Buffalo has spent $256.2 million of a $314.6 million league cap figure, and 84 percent of that is on the field. The Paid vs Played value rank is eighth of 32. Another $14.4 million sits on injured reserve, and $27.8 million is tied up in players not playing.

The best bargain is Deone Walker, an IDL with a $1.27 million cap hit. He has played 68 percent of the snaps, which puts him in the 91st percentile for playing time and the 44th for pay. The least value is Dawson Knox, a TE at $8.55 million, 94th percentile in pay and 53rd in snaps. That is the kind of line item a team can live with at 7-1, though it shows up in the math.

Paid vs Played

47 degrees: a Jets forecast that leans low

The Weather Ledger has the Bills at MetLife Stadium with a forecast of 47 degrees, 13 mph wind and a 0 percent chance of rain. The total is 50.5. In 375 similar games since 2000, the average was 42 points and 55 percent went under.

The gap between 42 and 50.5 is 8.5 points. That is the distance between what this kind of weather has produced and what the number asks for. It is a context figure, not a lean.

Buffalo is on the road Sunday, Nov. 15, and the broadcast is on CBS. The 1:00 p.m. Eastern start is the Week 10 game on the schedule. Watch the wind, because an off-script throw does not travel the same way at 13 mph.

Weather Ledger