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49ers DeskBy the Numbers

49ers lean on McCaffrey's short targets as the early-down pass rate drops to 41%

San Francisco leads the league in offensive EPA per play, and the last three weeks show where the efficiency is coming from.

Christian McCaffreyBy the Numbers+0.19Offense EPA/play · Week 9RBChristian McCaffrey
By 49ers Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 11, 1:00 PM ET2 min read

0.81: McCaffrey's targets are the best short throws on the roster

Christian McCaffrey has been targeted 10 times over the last three weeks and averaged 0.81 EPA per target, with 80% success and 80 yards. EPA, expected points added, measures how much a play moves a team's scoring outlook. His season mark on 45 targets is 0.11 EPA with 56% success and 270 yards, so the recent run is 0.70 above his full-year level.

That is the throw-and-run piece of the offense working. Christian McCaffrey is the second-most targeted player at 20% of the share for the season, and this stretch shows what happens when those looks become the plan.

41%: the early-down pass rate fell back in Week 9

San Francisco threw on 41% of early downs against Week 9's opponent, after 64% in Week 7. That is a drop of 23 points in two games played. The offense made 0.194 EPA per play in Week 9 against 0.01 in Week 7, though its success rate slipped from 56% to 50%.

Over the full season the Niners rank first in offensive EPA per play at 0.18 and succeed on 53% of plays. They are first in pass offense and third in rush offense, so the balance is not forced by a weakness on either side. The Week 9 split suggests the run game is being asked to set up the throws again.

1.02: Mike Evans is the efficiency leader at the receiver spot

Mike Evans has 40 targets, 500 yards and 1.02 EPA per target, with a 70% success rate and a 17% target share. George Kittle leads the team at 23%, with 483 yards and 0.28 EPA per target on 53 targets.

Over the last three weeks Kittle's share rose to 27%, but his EPA per target fell to 0.09. Jordan Watkins took 10 targets in that span for 142 yards and 0.58 EPA per target. Brock Purdy sits at 0.31 EPA per play for the season, with 1,934 yards and a completion rate 4.9 points above expectation. Over the last three weeks that EPA figure is 0.15, with 501 yards.

-0.12: Kaelon Black's carries are the drag on the ground game

Kaelon Black has 23 carries in the last three weeks for 133 yards, at -0.12 EPA per play and 39% success. McCaffrey has 25 carries in the same span for 107 yards, at 0.18 EPA and 48% success. For the season Black is at -0.08 EPA and 44% success on 68 carries, against McCaffrey's 0.13 and 51% on 102.

San Francisco is 7-1 and holds the top seed. It is 5-0 in its own building and 2-1 away from it, and the next game is a road game. The Niners visit the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, Nov. 15, at 4:25 PM ET on Fox. The data to track there is the early-down pass rate and McCaffrey's targets, the two numbers that moved most in the last three weeks.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.