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Bills DeskBy the Numbers

Josh Allen's passing efficiency has slipped as the Bills keep winning

Allen's EPA per play is 0.08 over three weeks against 0.29 for the season, and his carries are still among the offense's most efficient plays.

Josh AllenBy the Numbers+0.03Offense EPA/play · Week 8QBJosh Allen
By Bills Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 7, 1:27 PM ET2 min read

0.08: Allen's three-week EPA is well under his season mark

Josh Allen has averaged 0.08 expected points added (EPA, the points a play adds or costs versus the average result) per pass play over the last three weeks. His season figure is 0.29 on 241 plays. That is a gap of 0.21 per play.

His completion rate over expectation went the same direction, from plus-4 for the season to minus-1.4 in the recent 38 plays. Success rate barely moved, 47 percent against 48. He is still picking up yards at the same clip, but the plays that swing a drive are arriving less often.

The Bills still rank first in pass offense and second in offensive EPA per play at 0.173. Buffalo has won three straight, so the slip has not cost anything yet. It is the first number to check Monday night.

68%: Allen's carries succeed more often than anyone else's

Allen has 28 rushing plays this season for 74 yards, with a 68 percent success rate and 0.13 EPA per play. James Cook III has 138 carries for 707 yards, a 51 percent success rate and 0.05 EPA per play.

That is a 17-point edge in success rate for Allen and 0.08 in EPA per play. The volume is small, and the yardage is modest. But each time he tucks it, the math tilts in the offense's favor more than on a typical Cook handoff.

Cook has held steady lately at 0.07 EPA per play and a 52 percent success rate over 21 carries. Ray Davis has added six carries for 30 yards.

1.07: Kincaid and Shakir are carrying the receiving load

Dalton Kincaid has posted 1.07 EPA per target over the last three weeks, on 6 targets and 86 yards. Khalil Shakir is at 0.89 on 6 targets, with a 83 percent success rate. Their season marks are 0.48 and 0.40.

DJ Moore leads the recent target share at 21 percent, but his 0.25 EPA per target and 43 percent success rate trail the other two. Keon Coleman owns the best season mark of the group at 0.68 EPA per target on 28 targets.

The passing numbers are lower overall, and these two are the reason they are not lower still.

-0.497: the defense had its best day of the year in Week 8

The Bills allowed minus-0.497 EPA per play in Week 8, the lowest mark on the weekly log. Their season figure is 0.063 allowed, which ranks 23rd. The pass defense ranks 24th and the run defense 17th, and opponents succeed on 46 percent of plays.

The lineup moved that week. Damar Hamlin played 100 percent of snaps at safety, up from 68 percent in Week 6. Bradley Chubb went from 32 percent to 61 percent, while Gregory Rousseau dropped from 80 percent to 61 percent. Landon Jackson rose from 29 percent to 49 percent.

On offense, Tylan Grable played every snap at tackle after 1 percent in Week 6. The offense produced 0.027 EPA per play that week, its second-lowest of the season behind Week 3.

Buffalo is 6-1 and holds the top seed in the conference, with the Patriots (5-3) second in the division. The Bills play at the Minnesota Vikings on Monday, Nov. 9, at 8:15 p.m. ET on ABC and ESPN. They are 3-0 on the road.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.