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Bills DeskThe TapeGame center →

Bills turn two Ravens giveaways and four sacks into a 36-10 rout

Josh Allen threw one interception and the Bills still outgained Baltimore 426 yards to 144 at Highmark Stadium.

Josh AllenThe TapeW 36–10vsRAVENSQBJosh Allen
By Bills Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 7, 1:25 PM ET3 min read

The deciding stretch

The Bills got the ball at the Baltimore 20 with 14:10 left in the second quarter, and the game stopped being close. T.Huntley was sacked at the Baltimore 33 for a loss of 7 yards, Cole Bishop forced the fumble, and K.Elarms-Orr recovered it. Buffalo's win probability moved 10 percent on that one play.

The Bills outscored Baltimore 6-0 in the quarter and led 16-7 at the half. They then won the second half 20-3.

At 1:21 of the second quarter, J.Fagnano threw short left for Z.Flowers and D.Igbinosun stepped in at midfield. He returned it 17 yards to the Baltimore 33, and the swing was another 10 percent. Two plays, 20 points of win probability, and the Ravens never got it back.

The swing

This desk watches Josh Allen for the gap between his explosive plays and his turnover-worthy ones. Sunday he had both, and the ledger came out well in Buffalo's favor.

The cost came in the first quarter. With 4:17 left, Allen's short pass over the middle for Jackson Hawes was intercepted by B.Washington at the Buffalo 17, a 9 percent swing against the Bills. Six minutes earlier, Allen's 1-yard touchdown run at 10:10 had moved the same number the other way.

The payoff showed in the totals. Allen finished 21 of 34 for 289 yards, 2 touchdowns and the 1 interception, a passer rating of 96.3. The Bills averaged 8.0 yards per pass play, and Baltimore averaged 2.3.

Allen's 38 passing plays added 2.9 total EPA. That is expected points added, a measure of how much each play changed the scoring outlook. The Bills' dropbacks were worth 0.077 EPA apiece. The Ravens' were worth minus 0.659.

Who moved the needle

Dalton Kincaid led the roster with 6.4 total EPA on six plays. He caught 4 passes for 86 yards and a touchdown, with a long of 40. Khalil Shakir was next at 5.3 EPA, with 5 catches for 64 yards.

DJ Moore caught 4 passes for 82 yards and a touchdown, and his long was 49 yards. He drew a team-high 7 targets.

The ground game was steadier than sharp. James Cook III carried 21 times for 80 yards and a touchdown, 3.8 a carry, with a long of 16. Allen added 7 carries for 30 yards and a score, and Ray Davis had 6 for 30. The Bills' rushing plays came in at minus 0.024 EPA each.

Not everyone helped. Hawes and Keon Coleman posted the worst receiving numbers, minus 6.1 and minus 4.9 EPA on three plays apiece.

The front four made the afternoon miserable for Baltimore. Landon Jackson, Greg Rousseau, Bishop and TJ Parker each had a sack, and Rousseau added 3 quarterback hits and 2 passes defensed. The Ravens lost 23 yards on four sacks, went 3 of 13 on third down and punted away five of their 13 drives on three-and-outs.

Where it leaves them

Buffalo is 6-1 with three straight wins and the No. 1 seed in the conference. The Bills are 3-1 at home and 3-0 on the road, with 233 points scored against 181 allowed, a difference of 52. Their lead in the division is two and a half games over the Patriots at 5-3, with the Jets at 2-6 and the Dolphins at 1-6 behind them.

The offense has a loose end to tie up. Buffalo converted 4 of 14 third downs and survived because it went 4 of 5 on fourth down and 3 of 4 in the red zone. The Bills held the ball for 37:36 to Baltimore's 22:24, which covered for some of it. Their overall EPA per play was 0.027, against minus 0.497 for the Ravens.

The next game is on the road. Buffalo plays the Minnesota Vikings on Monday, Nov. 9, at 8:15 PM ET on ABC and ESPN, in Week 9.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.