# NFL playoff odds 2026

> After Week 9 of the 2026 season, the San Francisco 49ers are the Super Bowl favorites in the Pigskin Nightly model (22.6%), ahead of the Jacksonville Jaguars (22.3%) and the Buffalo Bills (11.1%), from 10,000 simulations of the 136 remaining games.

- Source: https://pigskinnightly.com/playoffs
- Publisher: Pigskin Nightly (https://pigskinnightly.com)
- Updated: 2026-11-10T14:50:13.419Z
- Method: https://pigskinnightly.com/methodology
- Please cite as: Pigskin Nightly, "NFL playoff odds 2026", https://pigskinnightly.com/playoffs

## Questions and answers

### Who is favored to win the Super Bowl in 2026?

San Francisco 49ers 22.6%, Jacksonville Jaguars 22.3%, Buffalo Bills 11.1%, Kansas City Chiefs 9.0% and Cincinnati Bengals 6.8%.

### Which NFL teams have clinched a playoff spot?

No team has officially clinched yet.

### Which teams are on the playoff bubble?

Between 25% and 75% to make it: Minnesota Vikings 75%, Green Bay Packers 71%, New England Patriots 53%, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 51%, Los Angeles Rams 47%, Seattle Seahawks 36%, Houston Texans 28% and Cleveland Browns 28% (plus 1 more).

### How are these playoff odds calculated?

Each team gets a strength rating built half from point differential per game and half from net EPA per game, shrunk toward average early in the season. The remaining schedule is played 10,000 times using the betting line where one exists, with simplified tiebreakers (head-to-head, division and conference record) and the 7-team playoff format. Full method at /methodology.