Week 10 · 2026Commanders 24 · 21 Giants
146 plays, one strand. Commanders won after 6 lead changes; Commanders peaked at 94% to win, Giants at 93%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for NYG, down for WSH, as long as the yards it gained.
↳Bottom line6 lead changes; Commanders peaked at 94% to win, Giants at 93%.
?How to read this chart
- Read it left to right:
- kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
- The white line
- is the chance that Giants win, play by play. High = NYG in control, low = WSH in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
- Each little bar is one play:
- up for NYG on offense, down for WSH; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).
The strands compared
?How to read this chart
- Each row compares the two teams
- on one stat: WSH on the left, NYG on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
- Explosive plays
- are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.
Every possession
?How to read this chart
- Each tile is one possession,
- in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
- Inside:
- the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.
The plays that moved it most
↳Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 3.4 expected points for Giants.
?How to read this chart
- The strip is the game clock;
- each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
- EP (expected points)
- is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.
- 1Q1 6:15 · NYG · Completion+3.4 EP
18-J.McCarthy pass short left to 44-C.Skattebo pushed ob at WAS 21 for 34 yards (20-Q.Martin) [92-D.Armstrong].
- 2Q1 4:08 · NYG · Missed field goal−3.3 EP
34-D.Zvada 33 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.
- 3Q3 7:05 · WSH · Touchdown+3.6 EP
5-J.Daniels pass short right to 14-A.Williams for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- 4Q3 4:14 · NYG · Fumble lost−4.5 EP
18-J.McCarthy pass short right to 1-M.Nabers to WAS 16 for 3 yards (4-F.Luvu). FUMBLES (4-F.Luvu), RECOVERED by WAS-39-J.Reaves at WAS 20.
- 5Q4 9:09 · WSH · Incomplete−3.2 EP
5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 3-S.Diggs (24-A.Washington).
- 6Q4 8:24 · NYG · Touchdown+6.5 EP
18-J.McCarthy pass deep middle to 9-I.Likely for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- 7Q4 5:31 · WSH · Interception−4.0 EP
5-J.Daniels pass deep left intended for 85-C.Okonkwo INTERCEPTED by 8-J.Holland at NYG 0. Touchback. The Replay Official reviewed the touchb
- 8Q4 1:05 · WSH · Touchdown+4.2 EP
5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 3-S.Diggs for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The one play that could have changed it
?How to read this chart
- The line is win probability
- over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
- Press Flip it
- to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.
If that interception had fallen incomplete
Q4 0:34 18-J.McCarthy pass deep right intended for 1-M.Nabers INTERCEPTED by 29-R.Douglas at WAS 11. 29-R.Douglas to WAS 11 for no gain (1-M.Nabers).