# Pigskin Nightly

> Independent pro football data publication: live scores, drive charts, win probability, EPA (expected points added), injuries, depth charts, snap counts and a desk for each of the 32 teams that writes postgame tape, scouting reports and weekly numbers from the play-by-play. Published by CR OU OÜ (Tallinn, Estonia). Not affiliated with the NFL.

Numbers are collected automatically from public league feeds and the open nflverse model and refreshed every few minutes on game days. Editorial standards: https://pigskinnightly.com/editorial-policy. Please cite "Pigskin Nightly" with a link to the page used. Method for every model: https://pigskinnightly.com/methodology.

Full data digest in one file (standings, playoff odds, EPA, injuries, all 32 teams): https://pigskinnightly.com/llms-full.txt. Plain-text (markdown) version of any player, team or game page: add ".md" to the URL (e.g. https://pigskinnightly.com/players/joe-burrow.md); also https://pigskinnightly.com/injuries.md, https://pigskinnightly.com/epa.md, https://pigskinnightly.com/playoffs.md.

## Core pages
- [Scores and live games](https://pigskinnightly.com/): every game of the current week, live field and win probability
- [Standings](https://pigskinnightly.com/standings): divisions and playoff seeds
- [EPA map](https://pigskinnightly.com/epa): offense and defense efficiency for all 32 teams
- [Injury report](https://pigskinnightly.com/injuries): every designation, every team
- [Playoff odds](https://pigskinnightly.com/playoffs): 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season: chances to make the playoffs, win the division, earn the bye and win the title, for all 32 teams
- [Strength of schedule](https://pigskinnightly.com/strength-of-schedule): remaining schedule difficulty for all 32 teams, rated on how opponents have actually played this season
- [Week in a nutshell](https://pigskinnightly.com/week): weekly recap: results, best performers, upset and comeback of the week
- [Newsroom](https://pigskinnightly.com/newsroom): all 32 club desks
- [The Verdict](https://pigskinnightly.com/verdict): our weekly critical issue: every game re-judged from the play-by-play (deserved win probability), the results that lied, the luckiest records, the flags that moved games and every fourth-down call graded
- [Robbed & Lucky](https://pigskinnightly.com/verdict/robbed): deserved margin and deserved win probability for every game of the season
- [Luck Index](https://pigskinnightly.com/verdict/luck): real wins vs deserved wins, one-score record, fumble and kicking luck for all 32 teams
- [Flag Ledger](https://pigskinnightly.com/verdict/flags): win probability moved by every accepted penalty, by team and by foul; touchdowns erased
- [Coach on Trial](https://pigskinnightly.com/verdict/fourth-down): every fourth down graded against an expected-points model; Chicken Index for all 32 head coaches
- [Garbage Time Tax](https://pigskinnightly.com/verdict/garbage-time): share of each player's and team's yards gained with the game already decided
- [Our Receipts](https://pigskinnightly.com/verdict/receipts): our pregame picks graded against results and the closing line: record, Brier score, calibration

## The Lab (original tools, updated after every game)
- [The Lab](https://pigskinnightly.com/lab): seven original tools built from the same play-by-play
- [Deserved Standings](https://pigskinnightly.com/lab/deserved-standings): standings and playoff seeds as if every game had gone to the team that deserved it; teams in a spot they did not earn and teams locked out
- [Sliding Doors](https://pigskinnightly.com/lab/sliding-doors): for every game, the single coin-flip play (fumble bounce, kick, fourth down) that would have changed it most, with the alternate win-probability path
- [Clock IQ](https://pigskinnightly.com/lab/clock-iq): clock-management grade (1-99) for every staff: two-minute drills, halves left on the table, timeouts burned, hurry-up, closing out
- [Ref Crew Report](https://pigskinnightly.com/lab/ref-crews): every officiating crew: accepted flags and yards per game, win probability moved, home/away split, signature calls; one page per crew; archive of every referee since 1999 (41 with 48+ games) with home win rate, home cover rate, over rate and flags against each season's average, career block on each crew page
- [Market vs Snaps](https://pigskinnightly.com/lab/market-vs-snaps): closing point spreads against the deserved margin from the snaps: teams the market underrates and overrates, records against the line
- [Scheme DNA](https://pigskinnightly.com/lab/scheme-dna): 12 offensive and 6 defensive scheme traits for all 32 teams (pass rate over expected, shotgun, motion, play action, RPO, tempo, blitz, box), closest twins, league map, formation tell; team pages at /teams/<team>/scheme
- [Game DNA](https://pigskinnightly.com/lab/game-dna): every game drawn as one poster from its play-by-play (win-probability spine, a rung per snap); game pages at /games/<game>/dna, SVG at /games/<game>/dna.svg
- [Paid vs Played](https://pigskinnightly.com/lab/paid-vs-played): every active contract (OverTheCap via nflverse) against this season's on-field value: percentile paid vs percentile played by position group, bargains, cap on injured reserve and on the bench, cost per EPA; team cap pages at /teams/<team>/cap, contract block on every player page
- [Loudest Stadiums](https://pigskinnightly.com/lab/loudest-stadiums): crowd noise index for every stadium since 1999: visiting pre-snap penalties, false starts and first-half timeouts against the visitors' own season norm (leave-one-out); the silent count era, the 2020 season without fans, attendance and roof splits, former stadiums
- [Turf vs Grass](https://pigskinnightly.com/lab/turf-vs-grass): every new injury on NFL injury reports since 2009 matched to the surface of the previous game: turf against grass rate ratios with 95% intervals by body part, season, position group, stadium and turf brand
- [Weather Ledger](https://pigskinnightly.com/lab/weather-ledger): measured weather (nearest NOAA GHCNh station, averaged over the hours of play) for every outdoor NFL game since 2000 against points, the closing total (under rate), home win rate and quarterbacks; dome teams in the cold; this week's outdoor forecasts with the history of games in similar conditions
- [How sure are we](https://pigskinnightly.com/lab/validation): every Lab metric tested against NFL history since 1999: calibration of the deserved win probability, whether luck carries over, what predicts the rest of a season (record, Deserved Wins, Pythagorean), whether Market vs Snaps predicts covers (it does not), Clock IQ split-half reliability and stadium noise year to year; JSON at /api/lab?part=validation
- [Line Movement](https://pigskinnightly.com/lab/line-movement): opening against closing spread and total for every NFL game since 2023 (ESPN BET, DraftKings or MGM): whether the side the market moved toward beat the opening and the closing number, move size buckets, key numbers 3 and 7, favorite flips, totals moved up or down, quarterback changes behind big moves, every team's market stock; this week's open vs current lines with our hourly snapshots
- JSON for every Lab tool: https://pigskinnightly.com/api/lab?part=standings|sliding|clock|refs|market|scheme|paid|loud|turf|weather|forecast|refhistory|lines|livelines, and https://pigskinnightly.com/api/lab?part=dna&game=<game-slug>

## Tools
- [With / Without](https://pigskinnightly.com/with-without): team splits with and without a player
- [Milestone Watch](https://pigskinnightly.com/milestones): career milestones within reach, with projected dates
- [Compare players](https://pigskinnightly.com/compare)
- [Starters](https://pigskinnightly.com/starters): projected starters (depth chart + injury report), most snaps last game and confirmed starters (snap counts) for every game of the week
- [Travel and rest](https://pigskinnightly.com/travel): miles, time zones, short weeks
- [DFS research](https://pigskinnightly.com/dfs): defense vs position, usage, implied totals
- [Rosters](https://pigskinnightly.com/rosters)
- [Video](https://pigskinnightly.com/video): highlights for every game

## Page types (all URLs are stable)
- Team hub: https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/{team} (e.g. /teams/browns): record, schedule, EPA ranks, depth chart, snap counts, injuries, playoff odds
- Player: https://pigskinnightly.com/players/{first-last} (e.g. /players/joe-burrow): game log, EPA per play, percentile card vs position peers, snaps, injury status
- Game: https://pigskinnightly.com/games/{yyyy-mm-dd}-{away}-at-{home} (e.g. /games/2026-11-05-jax-at-bal): win probability play by play, drive chart, box score, preview before kickoff
- Week recap: https://pigskinnightly.com/week/{n}: results, best performances, upset and comeback of the week
- The Verdict, one week: https://pigskinnightly.com/verdict/week/{n}; one club: https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/{team}/verdict (deserved record, luck, flags, fourth downs)
- Verdict data: CSV at https://pigskinnightly.com/verdict/{robbed|luck|flags|fourth-down|garbage-time|receipts}.csv, JSON at https://pigskinnightly.com/api/verdict; method at https://pigskinnightly.com/verdict/method

## Definitions
Full glossary with how each number is computed: https://pigskinnightly.com/glossary (stable anchors, e.g. https://pigskinnightly.com/glossary#epa-per-dropback).
- EPA (expected points added): change in expected points from one play to the next, from down, distance and field position (nflverse model). Positive is good for the offense.
- Success rate: share of plays with positive EPA.
- Win probability: ESPN live model, play by play.
- Playoff odds: our own Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 seasons) using point differential, EPA and the betting line when posted.

## Teams
- [Buffalo Bills](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/bills): hub · desk https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/bills/news · roster https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/bills/roster
- [Miami Dolphins](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/dolphins): hub · desk https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/dolphins/news · roster https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/dolphins/roster
- [New England Patriots](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/patriots): hub · desk https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/patriots/news · roster https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/patriots/roster
- [New York Jets](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/jets): hub · desk https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/jets/news · roster https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/jets/roster
- [Baltimore Ravens](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/ravens): hub · desk https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/ravens/news · roster https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/ravens/roster
- [Cincinnati Bengals](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/bengals): hub · desk https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/bengals/news · roster https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/bengals/roster
- [Cleveland Browns](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/browns): hub · desk https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/browns/news · roster https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/browns/roster
- [Pittsburgh Steelers](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/steelers): hub · desk https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/steelers/news · roster https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/steelers/roster
- [Houston Texans](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/texans): hub · desk https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/texans/news · roster https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/texans/roster
- [Indianapolis Colts](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/colts): hub · desk https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/colts/news · roster https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/colts/roster
- [Jacksonville Jaguars](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/jaguars): hub · desk https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/jaguars/news · roster https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/jaguars/roster
- [Tennessee Titans](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/titans): hub · desk https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/titans/news · roster https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/titans/roster
- [Denver Broncos](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/broncos): hub · desk https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/broncos/news · roster https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/broncos/roster
- [Kansas City Chiefs](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/chiefs): hub · desk https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/chiefs/news · roster https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/chiefs/roster
- [Las Vegas Raiders](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/raiders): hub · desk https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/raiders/news · roster https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/raiders/roster
- [Los Angeles Chargers](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/chargers): hub · desk https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/chargers/news · roster https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/chargers/roster
- [Dallas Cowboys](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/cowboys): hub · desk https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/cowboys/news · roster https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/cowboys/roster
- [New York Giants](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/giants): hub · desk https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/giants/news · roster https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/giants/roster
- [Philadelphia Eagles](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/eagles): hub · desk https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/eagles/news · roster https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/eagles/roster
- [Washington Commanders](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/commanders): hub · desk https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/commanders/news · roster https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/commanders/roster
- [Chicago Bears](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/bears): hub · desk https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/bears/news · roster https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/bears/roster
- [Detroit Lions](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/lions): hub · desk https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/lions/news · roster https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/lions/roster
- [Green Bay Packers](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/packers): hub · desk https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/packers/news · roster https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/packers/roster
- [Minnesota Vikings](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/vikings): hub · desk https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/vikings/news · roster https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/vikings/roster
- [Atlanta Falcons](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/falcons): hub · desk https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/falcons/news · roster https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/falcons/roster
- [Carolina Panthers](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/panthers): hub · desk https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/panthers/news · roster https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/panthers/roster
- [New Orleans Saints](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/saints): hub · desk https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/saints/news · roster https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/saints/roster
- [Tampa Bay Buccaneers](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/buccaneers): hub · desk https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/buccaneers/news · roster https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/buccaneers/roster
- [Arizona Cardinals](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/cardinals): hub · desk https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/cardinals/news · roster https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/cardinals/roster
- [Los Angeles Rams](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/rams): hub · desk https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/rams/news · roster https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/rams/roster
- [San Francisco 49ers](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/49ers): hub · desk https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/49ers/news · roster https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/49ers/roster
- [Seattle Seahawks](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/seahawks): hub · desk https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/seahawks/news · roster https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/seahawks/roster

## Latest from the desks
- [Texans earned 44-22 win over Chargers, and the snaps say it was no fluke](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/texans/news/texans-w9-verdict): Texans Desk
- [Panthers outplayed Denver and lost 26-21 on a late strip sack](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/panthers/news/panthers-w9-verdict): Panthers Desk
- [Lions earned 19-9 in Miami, with a defense doing the work and a thin offense](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/lions/news/lions-w9-verdict): Lions Desk
- [Browns' 33% success rate earned a 23-22 overtime loss to the Saints](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/browns/news/browns-w9-verdict): Browns Desk
- [Bills earned a 23-6 win in Minnesota despite a 40 percent success rate](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/bills/news/bills-w9-verdict): Bills Desk
- [Broncos are 7-2, but the snaps say 4.1 wins and the 11th seed in the conference](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/broncos/news/broncos-w9-lab): Broncos Desk
- [Vikings go 0-for-8 on third down and never get a receiver open in a 23-6 loss to Bills](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/vikings/news/vikings-w9-401873051-tape): Vikings Desk
- [Josh Allen's picks and sacks didn't matter: Bills force three turnovers in Minneapolis](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/bills/news/bills-w9-401873051-tape): Bills Desk
- [Buccaneers lose 27-24 in Chicago despite forcing five Bears turnovers](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/buccaneers/news/buccaneers-w9-401873050-tape): Buccaneers Desk
- [Caleb Williams throws four picks, and Loveland's 38-yarder still wins it for Chicago](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/bears/news/bears-w9-401873050-tape): Bears Desk
- [Stroud throws for 384 yards and five scores as Texans beat Chargers 44-22](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/texans/news/texans-w9-401873046-tape): Texans Desk
- [Cardinals go scoreless after a first-quarter field goal and fall 17-3 in Seattle](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/cardinals/news/cardinals-w9-401873048-tape): Cardinals Desk
- [Seahawks pressure Cardinals into a 3-for-13 night on third down and win 17-3](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/seahawks/news/seahawks-w9-401873048-tape): Seahawks Desk
- [Four Patriots turnovers and a 49-yard bomb decided it before Gillette settled](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/patriots/news/patriots-w9-401873049-tape): Patriots Desk
- [49ers turn five Raiders turnovers and 190 rushing yards into a 38-17 win](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/49ers/news/49ers-w9-401873047-tape): 49ers Desk
- [Cousins' three interceptions bury the Raiders in a 38-17 loss at San Francisco](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/raiders/news/raiders-w9-401873047-tape): Raiders Desk
- [Jordan Love throws for 372 yards as Packers turn four takeaways into a rout in New England](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/packers/news/packers-w9-401873049-tape): Packers Desk
- [Texans' 63-yard touchdown erased the Chargers' only swing in a 44-22 loss](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/chargers/news/chargers-w9-401873046-tape): Chargers Desk
- [Myles Garrett's strip-sack and Puka Nacua's 150 yards carry the Rams past Washington](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/rams/news/rams-w9-401873043-tape): Rams Desk
- [Jets score four field goals, no touchdowns, and the Chiefs pull away 35-12](https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/jets/news/jets-w9-401873045-tape): Jets Desk

## About
- [Methodology](https://pigskinnightly.com/methodology): sources, refresh rates and the exact method behind win probability, EPA, playoff odds, strength of schedule and with/without
- [About and data sources](https://pigskinnightly.com/about)
- [How we write](https://pigskinnightly.com/editorial-policy)
- [Glossary](https://pigskinnightly.com/glossary): definitions and methods for every stat on the site
- [Data license](https://pigskinnightly.com/data-license): the Lab, the Verdict and their JSON are CC BY 4.0: reuse freely with a credit and a link (Source: Pigskin Nightly, pigskinnightly.com/<page>); third-party data such as scores, injuries and odds is not covered
- [Contact](https://pigskinnightly.com/contact)